Despite the lead photo in this article, I’m going to steer clear of politics. And, hopefully in 8 days’ time we can steer clear of 1939. For now, there is possibly one area where there is no debate. The 2024 US Presidential election is too close to call. That hasn’t stopped some big bets, and even bigger statements. But, they are just bets. For posterity, I took a screenshot of the latest betting probabilities yesterday. You might think “game over” with a 94.5% probability of a win for Donald Trump. I think not. Furthermore, the data doesn’t ‘think’, but instead provides robust guidance.
First, not a single vote in the election has been counted yet. However, early voting has already started and is a mix of ballots mailed/returned in advance and early in-person voting at designated early voting stations in certain states. So, the data so far gives us an idea of WHO has voted. In turn, we can compare the profiles/mix of who has voted so far with the early voting patterns in the elections of 2016(Presidential), 2020(Presidential) and 2022(Mid-terms), and try to identify significant CHANGE. To add to the complexity of analysis this time are the unusual characteristics of earlier elections which make it difficult to make apples-to-apples type comparison. Here are the two most significant factors:
Covid 19: Due to the ongoing pandemic health measures in 2020, early voting accounted for 101 million votes out of 158 million votes cast. Democrat voters overwhelmingly chose to avoid in-person voting and used postal ballot papers.
GOP Election Strategy:The Republican share of that early voting was depressed by the party’s strong messaging on the potential for fraud, and encouragement to vote in-person on the day. That messaging has been reversed for the 2024 election.
So, in the states where early voting registers record party affiliation we would expect to see reduced health fears lowering the share of Democrat early voting. At the same time, the share of Republicans voting early would be expected to increase. This is, in fact, what has happened. However, there are some interesting data points which might surprise when you look a bit closer. In the critical “swing states” where registration details are available there are ‘outlier’ representations (not votes) along ethnic, age generation, education, gender and party affiliation lines. Given we have 8 days and 8 articles to write, I don’t propose to go through each line today. However, given the 94% win probability flagged above, I’d start with a few ‘biggies’.
The betting markets are not votes. However, one of the factors cited by the analysts is the very tight margins in the polls/surveys conducted with likely voters. As current polling sees it, the seven swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina) are +/- a few percentage points for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. In real terms these swing state pulse checks are “within the margin of error” which the experts think is 4-5%. Now, what gives the betting markets and various experts more fuel is the historic tendency of polls to miss the “hidden” Republican voters who turn out on election day. The consensus thinking is that the polls are probably not picking up this hidden Republican vote again. So, there’s a school of thought out there that thinks Trump is probably going to do 4-5% better than even the current polls are showing. Hmmm. That thinking presumes professional pollsters have decided to NOT model that factor again. That is unlikely given professional pollsters have had their credibility battered by big misses in 2016 and 2020. So, as a data person, I’m wondering if there’s now a possibility of a 5% over-count of prospective Trump votes? Two factors are worth considering.
Turnout:I said they’d be “biggies”. So, the biggest number of the lot is overall turnout. If it’s very high, or at record levels, then traditional analysis would suggest that favours a Democrat presidential win. Early voting levels at 50% of 2020 numbers at this point (41 million votes returned) indicates a strong turnout. But the next data ‘biggie’ is intriguing.
Female Vote: The female vote has been bigger than the men vote in every US general election since 1964. In 2020 63% of eligible females voted vs 59.5% of men. Now, add the fuel of abortion/healthcare freedoms to female voting fire and consider the current female polling gap of 12% points in favour of Harris (55-43). In the other column, men break about 9% points for Trump (54-45). The maths of the female vote holding those levels is that a smaller male voting cohort won’t close the losing gap of 2020 even if Trump wins the men’s vote by 10%. Of course, the swing states will have their own cultural characteristics but arguably the ‘hidden vote’ this year could be female Republican voters switching to Harris. Recall current thinking is up to 10% of Republicans might switch (or stay home?). A further gender point is that Republican strategy is to get new male voters to vote. According to election strategists, that is notoriously difficult to deliver. Current early voting numbers are not showing any real male surge. On the contrary, the 248% increase in black female voters in Georgia is eye-catching. Also, in Michigan, the gender gap in the early voting is actually bigger than 2020 or 2022 (56.6% female, 43.4% male).
For me, the female vote is the critical data point to watch. There have been millions of words written on shifts within the Hispanic vote, younger Gen Z voters and Black males but the big momma of this election is women. We will dig deeper in later articles. In particular, 2022 mid-term elections might be the more powerful guide to this one. It feels like not enough weight has been given to the massive 2022 swings seen in recent red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky. As said, not a single vote counted yet, but here’s a bet which might be attractively priced right now…
Just a bet but….. Kamal Harris to win the national vote by 5%, and wins 5 of 7 swing states easier than the polls show. Oh, and gets to within 1% of taking a huge red scalp in Texas or Florida. More tomorrow.
